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A Titanic-sized hole: plug or sink?

The former Conservative Chancellor Nigel Lawson once described the NHS as the closest thing we have to a national religion. A phrase that suggested he had, at least part of, his finger on the pulse of the nation.

Polling consistently puts the NHS top of our concerns.

Forged in the penniless post-war years it has survived and thrived in the rockiest economic storms since.

Today our health and social care system has a Titanic-sized financial hole. The combined deficits of NHS trusts have reached £1.6bn this year.

A sea brimming with icebergs has forced NHS Captain Simon Stevens to send out a Mayday call with 'five tests' that the Comprehensive Spending Review must meet to guarantee the NHS's modest plans.

Will the Government plug the leak or sink services?

On public health, the Government has already confirmed in-year cuts of £200m for local authorities - somewhat departing from the commitment to a "radical upgrade in prevention and public health."

New funding could be raised through a sensible Sugar Tax; a big decision always put off for another day.

Cuts of 30% to the Department for Communities and Local Government will inevitably hit social care. 400,000 people have been stripped of basic home support since 2010, leaving older people especially languishing exactly where they don't want to be - in hospital beds.

The hope that the additional £8bn already pledged to the NHS could be frontloaded - enabling investment in service transformation - is also hanging by a thread.

Last minute negotiations continue, with fingers, toes and everything else crossed. However, it looks unlikely that the hand out for the NHS and social care will bear any meaningful relationship to the needs and challenges of today, and tomorrow.

The reality is that the ringfence around health services is being dismantled panel by panel.

The extent of the political unthinking behind this is a rather tedious line about a strong NHS needing a strong economy. Actually no, a (wishing to be) strong economy needs a strong NHS.

A healthy and well people are more productive.

Imagine if the current approach had been adopted by politicians from all sides in the years following World War II. The courage required to create the NHS may never have been summoned.

Our war debt never brought down; our economic recovery unbuilt.

Perhaps George Osborne - the man who would be king - doesn't fully feel the emotional, rational and historical tug the nation does towards her health service.

His wise predecessor did.




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